One Present, Many Futures
Build a world — and step outside it.
The observer problem
Publish a poll and it moves the votes. Publish a price and it moves the trades. Publish a forecast and it changes the outcome. Every instrument that measures a population from inside it becomes part of the system it measures — the deep structure isn't hidden, it is destroyed by the act of looking at it.
This is not a data problem that more data fixes. It is a position problem, and there is only one way out: build a world, and step outside it.
Reading from outside
A synthetic civilization can be asked without asking anyone, and run forward without moving the world it describes. From outside, a consensus stops being one number: the same 60% can be bedrock or a cascade waiting for a reason, and the difference — invisible to every existing instrument — is the most valuable information in markets, politics, and geopolitics.
We don't pick the future. We map the space of possible futures — with the impossible ones crossed out.
Held to account
A method is only science if it can be wrong in public. Every answer the civilization gives is a claim that reality gets to grade: our evaluations are scored blind, on questions the model has never seen, against outcomes that had not happened yet.
We are building CIT-100 — a public benchmark for civilization models, scored in the open against live prediction markets, permanently, with every miss on the record. When it ships, hold us to it.